In [14]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
display(Markdown(output))
DAY 1 FOR THE REGGIE BUSH LEAGUE, 2026¶
The RBL Commissioner's Mother-in-Law on top of the Scoreboard¶
High Point provides a Low Moment for Many¶
Go Carolina, Bye to BYU¶
DAY 1 SCORES¶
rank score champ runner-up
1 140 Susan Alexander UConn Arizona
2 130 Chris Leidel Arizona Kansas
130 Kevin Broich Arizona Illinois
130 Matt Manderfeld Arizona Florida
130 Nathan Rothstein Iowa State Houston
130 Paul Mazanec Michigan UConn
130 Shonak Patel Arizona Houston
130 Will Davis Arizona Florida
9 120 Brett Michigan UConn
120 Celia R Arizona Florida
120 Julia Barclay Virginia Duke
120 Kristen Carothers UConn Gonzaga
120 Lauren Wanski Houston Michigan
120 Matt Saldana UConn Santa Clara
120 Nathaniel Michigan Duke
120 Ross Michigan Florida
17 110 Alex ML Florida Iowa State
110 Ben Truboff Gonzaga Duke
110 Caroline Gammill UConn Virginia
110 Dan Rothstein Michigan Illinois
110 G Holland Duke Purdue
110 Hampton Barclay Michigan Duke
110 Jason Matos Arizona Houston
110 Jim Gammill Purdue Illinois
110 Michael Tracy Iowa State Houston
110 Paul Mazane Arizona Michigan State
110 Peter Felion Duke Iowa State
110 Rob Hamilton Florida Iowa State
110 Sean Arizona Duke
30 100 Ben Sampson Duke Arizona
100 Casey Farrell Florida Arizona
100 Dave Arizona Florida
100 Griffin Gammill Duke Purdue
100 Joel Worthington Arizona UConn
100 Matt Manderfeld Michigan Houston
100 Wyatt Iowa State Houston
37 90 Ben Sampson Iowa State Houston
90 Bibeka Alabama Houston
90 Steve Maltzman UConn Michigan
40 80 Andrew Koziol Duke Michigan
41 70 Robbie Michigan UConn
DESTROYED VALUE¶
A collective measure of how far we think each school is going¶
Sometimes a first round loss is no big deal, because you picked that team to exit in the second round.
But sometimes it's a big deal, if you planned to have that pick ride all the way to the Finals.
The measure 'Destroyed Value' is how many potential points you've lost -- how many more points you were hoping to get from teams that have already lost.
rank destroyed value
1 260 Andrew Koziol
2 150 Ben Sampson
150 Bibeka
4 140 Wyatt
5 130 Robbie
6 120 Casey Farrell
120 Griffin Gammill
120 Joel Worthington
120 Kristen Carothers
10 110 Dan Rothstein
110 Rob Hamilton
110 Steve Maltzman
110 Will Davis
14 90 Caroline Gammill
90 Hampton Barclay
90 Michael Tracy
17 80 Ben Sampson
80 Matt Manderfeld
19 70 Jim Gammill
70 Peter Felion
21 60 Dave
60 Lauren Wanski
60 Matt Saldana
60 Nathaniel
60 Ross
26 50 Alex ML
50 Ben Truboff
50 Chris Leidel
50 G Holland
50 Jason Matos
50 Matt Manderfeld
50 Paul Mazane
50 Paul Mazanec
50 Sean
35 40 Brett
40 Celia R
40 Julia Barclay
40 Susan Alexander
39 30 Kevin Broich
30 Nathan Rothstein
30 Shonak Patel
SIMULATIONS GIVE US EXPECTED VALUES¶
E(value) is the simulation process expected payoff for you, from first, second and third place showings. This is the expected prize winnings, before subtracting the $20 entry fee.
Pr(1st), Pr(2nd), and Pf(3rd) are the probabilities of finishing 1, 2, and 3.
Avg-Win is the average of your scores when you win.
Best-Win is the highest of your winning scores. Those who picked more than average number of upsets have lower average and best scores.
Current expected value rankings at this point reward those with less popular high seeds.
E(value) Pr(1st) Pr(2nd) Pr(3rd) Avg-Win Best-Win
1 Jim Gammill 60.65 8.86 3.56 2.40 1176 1830
2 Alex ML 46.07 6.60 5.22 3.33 1212 1820
3 Ben Truboff 44.12 6.64 1.78 1.50 1197 1820
4 Lauren Wanski 42.61 6.41 1.86 1.54 1261 1810
5 Julia Barclay 39.35 5.67 2.56 2.42 1207 1830
6 Paul Mazane 33.78 4.79 2.69 1.88 1046 1810
7 Kevin Broich 31.44 4.15 4.38 3.47 1117 1800
8 G Holland 24.07 2.66 6.17 4.15 1198 1810
9 Brett 23.73 3.15 3.90 3.09 1093 1790
10 Shonak Patel 21.83 2.32 5.84 4.84 1199 1840
11 Peter Felion 21.33 2.89 2.19 2.45 1205 1750
12 Ben Sampson 21.21 2.70 2.82 2.90 1330 1780
13 Ross 20.81 2.79 2.84 2.92 1282 1800
14 Caroline Gammill 20.77 2.45 4.42 3.31 1110 1800
15 Matt Manderfeld 20.43 2.64 3.68 2.55 1156 1780
16 Casey Farrell 20.15 2.70 2.44 3.28 1326 1750
17 Chris Leidel 19.75 2.85 1.86 1.33 1022 1830
18 Wyatt 18.03 2.18 3.18 2.34 1266 1750
19 Paul Mazanec 17.00 2.18 3.07 2.90 1206 1800
20 Bibeka 16.18 2.45 0.61 0.31 1068 1540
21 Kristen Carothers 15.92 1.83 3.74 3.10 1160 1720
22 Michael Tracy 15.91 1.94 2.47 2.99 1228 1790
23 Nathan Rothstein 15.08 1.82 2.89 2.51 1199 1780
24 Steve Maltzman 14.51 1.89 2.22 1.90 1305 1740
25 Dave 14.27 1.58 3.76 3.24 1096 1820
26 Susan Alexander 14.04 1.77 1.91 1.75 1250 1730
27 Dan Rothstein 13.98 1.87 1.54 2.08 1093 1710
28 Matt Manderfeld 13.94 1.66 2.45 2.49 1088 1810
29 Rob Hamilton 13.82 1.52 4.03 3.38 1239 1740
30 Sean 13.36 1.63 2.26 2.32 1271 1820
31 Celia R 12.22 1.36 2.49 2.76 1252 1810
32 Nathaniel 11.94 1.47 2.16 2.11 1265 1750
33 Griffin Gammill 10.81 0.94 3.44 3.76 1221 1720
34 Ben Sampson 10.47 1.33 1.48 2.22 1171 1690
35 Jason Matos 9.72 1.07 2.40 2.26 1086 1770
36 Hampton Barclay 8.82 1.07 1.77 1.67 1236 1740
37 Joel Worthington 8.14 1.12 0.87 1.14 1324 1740
38 Andrew Koziol 7.56 1.06 0.68 0.66 1274 1590
39 Matt Saldana 5.04 0.65 0.67 0.60 1068 1670
40 Will Davis 4.67 0.54 1.07 1.18 1162 1720
41 Robbie 2.51 0.15 0.87 1.27 1269 1690
LINKS FOR TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS¶
You will be able to find this page later at jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day1.html.
EARLIER PAGE LINKS¶
Day 0: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day0.html.
FINALLY, WE HAVE HEAT MAPS !¶
These include only the four most likely teams to reach the Final 4 in each bracket.¶
Listed here by Expected Value ranking¶
In [7]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
fig = heatMaps(*heatMapTup)
