In [19]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
display(Markdown(output))
DAY 5 FOR THE REGGIE BUSH LEAGUE, 2026¶
Only 2048 possible paths left, let's look at each one¶
DAY 5 SCORES¶
rank score champ runner-up
1 630 G Holland Duke Purdue
630 Matt Manderfeld Arizona Florida
3 610 Paul Mazane Arizona Michigan State
4 600 Dave Arizona Florida
5 590 Nathaniel Michigan Duke
6 580 Alex ML Florida Iowa State
580 Paul Mazanec Michigan UConn
580 Ross Michigan Florida
9 570 Julia Barclay Virginia Duke
570 Michael Tracy Iowa State Houston
11 560 Jason Matos Arizona Houston
560 Lauren Wanski Houston Michigan
13 550 Jim Gammill Purdue Illinois
14 540 Kevin Broich Arizona Illinois
540 Shonak Patel Arizona Houston
16 530 Sean Arizona Duke
17 520 Brett Michigan UConn
520 Casey Farrell Florida Arizona
520 Wyatt Iowa State Houston
20 510 Hampton Barclay Michigan Duke
21 500 Ben Truboff Gonzaga Duke
500 Joel Worthington Arizona UConn
500 Matt Manderfeld Michigan Houston
500 Rob Hamilton Florida Iowa State
25 490 Celia R Arizona Florida
490 Susan Alexander UConn Arizona
27 480 Steve Maltzman UConn Michigan
28 470 Griffin Gammill Duke Purdue
29 460 Ben Sampson Duke Arizona
460 Caroline Gammill UConn Virginia
460 Will Davis Arizona Florida
32 450 Peter Felion Duke Iowa State
33 440 Chris Leidel Arizona Kansas
440 Dan Rothstein Michigan Illinois
35 430 Matt Saldana UConn Santa Clara
430 Nathan Rothstein Iowa State Houston
430 Robbie Michigan UConn
38 400 Andrew Koziol Duke Michigan
39 390 Ben Sampson Iowa State Houston
40 380 Kristen Carothers UConn Gonzaga
41 360 Bibeka Alabama Houston
DESTROYED VALUE¶
rank destroyed value
1 980 Ben Truboff
2 910 Julia Barclay
3 900 Kristen Carothers
4 880 Casey Farrell
5 860 Rob Hamilton
6 850 Matt Saldana
7 840 Lauren Wanski
8 780 Alex ML
780 Caroline Gammill
10 760 Bibeka
760 Chris Leidel
12 740 Will Davis
13 730 Ben Sampson
14 660 Matt Manderfeld
15 650 Nathan Rothstein
16 600 Andrew Koziol
600 Dave
18 550 Celia R
19 540 Ben Sampson
20 530 Griffin Gammill
21 520 Jason Matos
520 Wyatt
23 510 Michael Tracy
510 Peter Felion
25 500 Shonak Patel
26 490 Robbie
27 480 Dan Rothstein
28 460 Ross
29 440 Brett
440 Steve Maltzman
31 430 Susan Alexander
32 410 Matt Manderfeld
33 380 Joel Worthington
34 370 G Holland
35 350 Sean
36 330 Hampton Barclay
37 300 Kevin Broich
300 Paul Mazanec
39 290 Jim Gammill
40 270 Paul Mazane
41 210 Nathaniel
EXPECTED VALUES from equal weighted paths¶
E(value) Pr(1st) Pr(2nd) Pr(3rd) Avg-Win Best-Win
1 Jim Gammill 135.36 20.02 6.05 3.56 1193 1630
2 Matt Manderfeld 89.99 11.52 12.50 9.38 1086 1510
3 G Holland 84.94 10.11 19.43 6.79 1105 1550
4 Paul Mazane 74.55 9.86 5.66 9.72 1143 1650
5 Kevin Broich 62.37 8.06 7.23 8.15 1193 1620
6 Nathaniel 55.11 7.47 5.47 6.69 1221 1710
7 Bibeka 37.90 5.76 0.93 0.24 1035 1160
8 Michael Tracy 36.90 4.83 4.20 3.61 1243 1410
9 Paul Mazanec 26.58 3.17 3.71 4.69 1208 1620
10 Wyatt 26.53 3.42 4.59 0.39 1194 1400
11 Susan Alexander 25.34 3.52 2.73 0.39 1272 1490
12 Alex ML 21.00 2.44 3.47 4.93 983 1140
13 Steve Maltzman 20.70 2.73 2.34 1.51 1240 1480
14 Sean 15.95 2.05 1.32 2.83 1365 1570
15 Ross 13.14 1.22 3.66 2.98 1183 1460
16 Joel Worthington 12.93 1.56 1.86 2.34 1395 1540
17 Ben Sampson 9.62 1.17 1.17 1.56 1353 1380
18 Jason Matos 7.69 0.00 5.96 3.32 0 0
19 Shonak Patel 6.30 0.59 1.81 2.83 1160 1420
20 Peter Felion 5.45 0.68 0.20 1.71 1375 1410
21 Griffin Gammill 4.53 0.00 2.34 4.20 0 0
22 Dan Rothstein 4.09 0.39 1.27 0.63 1270 1440
23 Andrew Koziol 3.03 0.39 0.39 0.24 1310 1320
24 Nathan Rothstein 2.94 0.00 0.00 4.79 0 0
25 Caroline Gammill 2.49 0.00 1.17 2.34 0 0
26 Dave 2.45 0.00 0.78 2.88 0 0
27 Brett 2.13 0.00 1.37 1.37 0 0
28 Hampton Barclay 2.02 0.00 0.93 2.00 0 0
29 Casey Farrell 1.80 0.20 0.39 0.29 960 1040
30 Rob Hamilton 1.58 0.10 0.63 1.17 1060 1060
31 Julia Barclay 1.41 0.00 0.63 1.95 0 0
32 Lauren Wanski 1.00 0.00 0.59 0.73 0 0
33 Matt Saldana 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.46 0 0
34 Ben Sampson 0.62 0.00 0.00 1.17 0 0
35 Robbie 0.36 0.00 0.05 0.59 0 0
36 Celia R 0.17 0.00 0.10 0.29 0 0
37 Matt Manderfeld 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.10 0 0
NEW HOPE FOR (some) BUSTED BRACKETS¶
Winning path found for Casey Farrell! (winning score is 1040)
Champ: Iowa
Runner-up: Arizona
Final Four: UConn
Michigan
Elite Eight: Duke
Illinois
Purdue
Tennessee
Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State
St John's
Houston
Nebraska
Arkansas
Texas
Iowa State
Alabama
Winning path found for Rob Hamilton! (winning score is 1060)
(but you have to share it with Alex ML)
Champ: Illinois
Runner-up: Iowa State
Final Four: Duke
Purdue
Elite Eight: UConn
Iowa
Arizona
Michigan
Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State
St John's
Houston
Nebraska
Arkansas
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
WHO HAS HOW MANY TEAMS LEFT?¶
# picks in sweet 16
14 Paul Mazane
13 G Holland
Matt Manderfeld
Paul Mazanec
Sean
Shonak Patel
12 Alex ML
Dave
Joel Worthington
Julia Barclay
Lauren Wanski
Michael Tracy
Nathaniel
Wyatt
11 Ben Truboff
Brett
Jason Matos
Matt Manderfeld
Ross
10 Caroline Gammill
Celia R
Kevin Broich
Rob Hamilton
Robbie
Steve Maltzman
9 Ben Sampson
Casey Farrell
Hampton Barclay
Jim Gammill
Matt Saldana
Peter Felion
8 Ben Sampson
Bibeka
Chris Leidel
Dan Rothstein
Griffin Gammill
Nathan Rothstein
Susan Alexander
7 Andrew Koziol
Will Davis
6 Kristen Carothers
LINKS FOR TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS¶
You will be able to find this page later at jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day5.html.
EARLIER PAGE LINKS¶
Day 0: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day0.html.
Day 1: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day1.html.
Day 2: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day2.html.
Day 3: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day3.html.
Day 4: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day4.html.
HEAT MAPS¶
In [13]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
fig = heatMaps(*heatMapTup)
