In [24]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
display(Markdown(output))
DAY 4 FOR THE REGGIE BUSH LEAGUE, 2026¶
On to the Sweet Sixteen¶
Only 32,768 possible paths left, let's look at each one¶
DAY 4 SCORES¶
rank score champ runner-up
1 540 Paul Mazanec Michigan UConn
2 530 Paul Mazane Arizona Michigan State
3 510 G Holland Duke Purdue
510 Matt Manderfeld Arizona Florida
5 500 Alex ML Florida Iowa State
500 Shonak Patel Arizona Houston
7 490 Julia Barclay Virginia Duke
490 Michael Tracy Iowa State Houston
490 Sean Arizona Duke
10 480 Brett Michigan UConn
480 Dave Arizona Florida
480 Jason Matos Arizona Houston
480 Lauren Wanski Houston Michigan
480 Wyatt Iowa State Houston
15 470 Nathaniel Michigan Duke
16 460 Ben Truboff Gonzaga Duke
460 Joel Worthington Arizona UConn
460 Kevin Broich Arizona Illinois
460 Matt Manderfeld Michigan Houston
460 Ross Michigan Florida
21 450 Celia R Arizona Florida
22 440 Steve Maltzman UConn Michigan
23 430 Hampton Barclay Michigan Duke
430 Jim Gammill Purdue Illinois
430 Matt Saldana UConn Santa Clara
26 420 Ben Sampson Duke Arizona
420 Caroline Gammill UConn Virginia
420 Rob Hamilton Florida Iowa State
29 410 Peter Felion Duke Iowa State
410 Susan Alexander UConn Arizona
31 400 Casey Farrell Florida Arizona
400 Chris Leidel Arizona Kansas
400 Dan Rothstein Michigan Illinois
34 390 Ben Sampson Iowa State Houston
390 Griffin Gammill Duke Purdue
390 Nathan Rothstein Iowa State Houston
390 Robbie Michigan UConn
38 380 Kristen Carothers UConn Gonzaga
380 Will Davis Arizona Florida
40 360 Andrew Koziol Duke Michigan
360 Bibeka Alabama Houston
DESTROYED VALUE¶
rank destroyed value
1 940 Ben Truboff
2 900 Kristen Carothers
3 880 Casey Farrell
4 860 Rob Hamilton
5 790 Julia Barclay
6 740 Alex ML
740 Will Davis
8 640 Chris Leidel
9 620 Caroline Gammill
10 600 Andrew Koziol
600 Dave
12 570 Matt Saldana
13 510 Celia R
14 480 Bibeka
15 460 Ross
16 450 Ben Sampson
17 430 Susan Alexander
18 420 Ben Sampson
19 410 Matt Manderfeld
20 400 Steve Maltzman
21 370 G Holland
370 Griffin Gammill
370 Nathan Rothstein
24 360 Dan Rothstein
25 350 Peter Felion
26 330 Hampton Barclay
330 Robbie
28 300 Kevin Broich
29 290 Jim Gammill
30 280 Brett
31 260 Joel Worthington
260 Matt Manderfeld
33 240 Jason Matos
240 Lauren Wanski
240 Wyatt
36 230 Michael Tracy
230 Sean
38 220 Shonak Patel
39 210 Nathaniel
40 150 Paul Mazane
41 140 Paul Mazanec
EXPECTED VALUES from equal weighted paths¶
E(value) Pr(1st) Pr(2nd) Pr(3rd) Avg-Win Best-Win
1 Paul Mazane 87.82 12.63 4.14 5.30 1001 1770
2 Jim Gammill 57.57 8.18 4.36 2.68 1161 1630
3 Matt Manderfeld 53.00 7.08 5.88 4.56 903 1510
4 Paul Mazanec 52.88 6.62 9.48 7.02 1110 1780
5 G Holland 48.54 5.93 10.31 5.29 1067 1550
6 Bibeka 45.63 6.87 1.74 0.79 1066 1440
7 Michael Tracy 42.58 5.34 7.02 4.86 1185 1690
8 Lauren Wanski 42.04 6.31 1.43 1.73 1243 1680
9 Brett 38.41 4.64 7.75 4.21 976 1640
10 Wyatt 29.65 3.68 5.33 2.46 1226 1680
11 Kevin Broich 28.60 3.69 3.71 3.63 1054 1620
12 Dan Rothstein 26.55 3.81 1.34 2.20 978 1560
13 Jason Matos 26.02 2.77 6.03 5.59 1013 1680
14 Nathaniel 25.84 3.42 4.13 3.66 1150 1710
15 Matt Manderfeld 22.36 2.55 5.52 3.95 1115 1660
16 Peter Felion 21.54 2.98 2.33 2.15 1162 1570
17 Shonak Patel 19.77 1.93 6.03 4.90 1108 1700
18 Matt Saldana 17.98 2.30 1.88 2.52 1189 1350
19 Steve Maltzman 15.56 1.87 2.53 2.12 1283 1520
20 Alex ML 15.42 1.88 2.64 2.91 934 1180
21 Sean 15.00 1.90 2.21 2.87 1194 1690
22 Susan Alexander 10.34 1.30 1.17 1.42 1287 1490
23 Joel Worthington 9.51 1.21 1.21 1.65 1331 1660
24 Caroline Gammill 9.31 0.93 1.97 2.63 1212 1300
25 Griffin Gammill 8.63 0.63 2.69 4.77 1224 1550
26 Ben Sampson 8.42 1.02 0.95 1.60 1349 1500
27 Julia Barclay 4.26 0.49 1.09 1.31 923 1130
28 Ross 3.76 0.36 1.39 1.74 1146 1460
29 Andrew Koziol 3.50 0.48 0.34 0.20 1283 1320
30 Nathan Rothstein 2.47 0.00 0.45 3.75 0 0
31 Hampton Barclay 1.91 0.15 1.00 0.92 1280 1590
32 Ben Sampson 1.62 0.00 0.00 3.07 0 0
33 Robbie 0.93 0.00 0.32 1.10 0 0
34 Rob Hamilton 0.91 0.04 0.32 0.65 1020 1060
35 Celia R 0.57 0.06 0.10 0.30 1226 1410
36 Dave 0.48 0.00 0.12 0.64 0 0
37 Ben Truboff 0.35 0.02 0.11 0.21 940 980
38 Casey Farrell 0.25 0.02 0.06 0.07 960 1040
NEW HOPE FOR (some) BUSTED BRACKETS¶
Here are 5 low expected value brackets -- let's look for a winning path¶
Winning path found for Alex ML! (winning score is 860)
Champ: St John's
Runner-up: Purdue
Final Four: Nebraska
Iowa State
Elite Eight: UConn
Houston
Arkansas
Michigan
Sweet Sixteen: Duke
Michigan State
Illinois
Iowa
Arizona
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
Winning path found for Ben Truboff! (winning score is 980)
Champ: Texas
Runner-up: Duke
Final Four: Nebraska
Michigan
Elite Eight: UConn
Houston
Arizona
Iowa State
Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State
St John's
Illinois
Iowa
Purdue
Arkansas
Alabama
Tennessee
Winning path found for Casey Farrell! (winning score is 1040)
Champ: Nebraska
Runner-up: Arizona
Final Four: UConn
Michigan
Elite Eight: Duke
Illinois
Purdue
Tennessee
Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State
St John's
Houston
Iowa
Arkansas
Texas
Iowa State
Alabama
Winning path found for Julia Barclay! (winning score is 810)
(but you have to share it with Michael Tracy)
Champ: St John's
Runner-up: Alabama
Final Four: Houston
Purdue
Elite Eight: Michigan State
Nebraska
Arizona
Tennessee
Sweet Sixteen: Duke
UConn
Illinois
Iowa
Arkansas
Texas
Michigan
Iowa State
Winning path found for Rob Hamilton! (winning score is 1060)
Champ: Illinois
Runner-up: Iowa State
Final Four: Duke
Purdue
Elite Eight: UConn
Nebraska
Arkansas
Michigan
Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State
St John's
Houston
Iowa
Arizona
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
WHO HAS HOW MANY TEAMS LEFT?¶
# picks in sweet 16
14 Paul Mazane
13 G Holland
Matt Manderfeld
Paul Mazanec
Sean
Shonak Patel
12 Alex ML
Dave
Joel Worthington
Julia Barclay
Lauren Wanski
Michael Tracy
Nathaniel
Wyatt
11 Ben Truboff
Brett
Jason Matos
Matt Manderfeld
Ross
10 Caroline Gammill
Celia R
Kevin Broich
Rob Hamilton
Robbie
Steve Maltzman
9 Ben Sampson
Casey Farrell
Hampton Barclay
Jim Gammill
Matt Saldana
Peter Felion
8 Ben Sampson
Bibeka
Chris Leidel
Dan Rothstein
Griffin Gammill
Nathan Rothstein
Susan Alexander
7 Andrew Koziol
Will Davis
6 Kristen Carothers
LINKS FOR TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS¶
You will be able to find this page later at jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day4.html.
EARLIER PAGE LINKS¶
Day 0: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day0.html.
Day 1: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day1.html.
Day 2: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day2.html.
Day 3: jgweb.info/2026/RBL-Day3.html.
HEAT MAPS¶
In [10]:
# OUTPUT_CELL
fig = heatMaps(*heatMapTup)
