2023 REGGIE BUSH LEAGUE ANALYTICS -- AFTER DAY 1¶
Day 1 Scores¶
_ = printLines(current_scores)
DESTROYED VALUE -- and how¶
Sometimes a first round loss is no big deal, because you picked that team to exit in the second round.
But sometimes it's a big deal, if you planned to have that pick ride all the way to the Finals.
The measure "Destroyed Value" is how many potential points you've lost -- how many more points you were hoping to get from teams that have already lost.
Princeton and Furman did their damage here¶
eg, the Barclay Family is dealing with 1,950 points of destroyed value¶
_ = printLines(destroyed_values)
SIMULATIONS GIVE US EXPECTED VALUES¶
E(value) is the simulation process expected payoff for you, from first, second and third place showings. This is the expected prize winnings, before subtracting the \$25 entry fee.
Pr(1st), Pr(2nd), and Pf(3rd) are the probabilities of finishing 1, 2, and 3.
Avg-Win is the average of your scores when you win.
Best-Win is the highest of your winning scores. Those who picked more than average number of upsets have lower average and best scores.
_ = printLines(expected_values)
heatMaps(players, teams, ttracker, xy2, 1)
As a reminder, here are the 2023 Players, by predicted Tourney champ¶
_ = printLines(top_picks)
footnote: if you more details on the simulation probability scheme¶
The simulation uses several ways to weight the likelihood that one team will win over another.
In the first and second rounds, I give strong weight to the seeds. In the third round, I make it more likely a toss-up. And for the Elite 8 forward, I give each game a 50-50 weighting -- I figure if a team has made it that far, it must be pretty good regardless of its initial seed.
Here is a bit more detail about how I am calculating the odds for each game, by round.
Round of 64: in the first round, each team's probability of winning depends on the square of seeds. For instance, an 8 playing a 9 gives the 8-seed a 55.9% chance of winning (81/(81+64)), while the 1 seed playing the 16 seed has a 99.6% chance of winning (256/257).
Round of 32: in the second round, the odds are based on the seeds (not squared). The 1-seed playing the 8-seed has a 88.9% chance of winning, while the 4-seed playing the 5 has a 55.6% chance.
Sweet 16: here I blend the ratio of seeds approach with a 50-50 odds. So a 1-seed playing a 4-seed has a 65% chance of winning (0.5 times (4/5) + 0.5 times 0.5).
Elite 8 and further: every game is rated 50-50 at this stage.
Other weighting schemes may give different results -- if you don't like your Expected Value scores, (some of you) can blame the scheme, not your picks!
Again, these results are for 500,000 simulated paths.
LINKS¶
You will be able to find this page later at jgweb.info/RBL23/RBL23-day-1.html.
You can get back to the current page at jgweb.info.
Earlier Page¶